If the auto-rickshaw I am traveling in, brakes suddenly and takes a turn – left or right – depending on which side I am seated – left or right – what are the various things that can happen? (It’s an accident situation.)
SCENARIO I: The autorickshaw takes a left turn and I am seated on the left – so I would swing to the right and the right side would be below me – of course it’s an accident where the autorickshaw topples onto it’s right side – so what do I do? I immediately lunge toward the open left side and hang out so that when the auto finally rests on its right – I can stand – and am not hurt – except for maybe a couple of bruises on my elbows, knees due to them bumping against the autorickshaw’s inner pipes etc.
SCENARIO II: The autorickshaw takes a left turn and I am seated on the right – so I would swing to the right and maybe go out the right side and maybe the auto would land on top of me, crushing a couple or more of my bones. So what should I do? I should immediately lunge toward the left side, hang onto the inner pipes and bring my knees upto my chest – so that my legs don’t get dragged under the autorickshaw when it finally comes to rest on its right side.
SCENARIO III: Change all the lefts to right and all rights to left in SCENARIO I.
SCENARIO IV: Change all the lefts to right and all rights to left in SCENARIO II.
– The key is – would I actually do it? Would my brain actually have time to react to the scenarios?Is scenario planning any good if we only end up imagining the scenarios and never using them?
– Is “experience” the only way to find out whether the scenario actually works?
– Is scenario planning any good for innovation?
– Is there a discipline called “Innovation Scenario Planning“?
– If there is someone who practices something similar – would you please share what you do on the ASIDE blog?
We would love to e-print your work summary!
As for whether “my” brain had time to use the scenario planning – the answer is “yes” – SCENARIO I above happened to me and I had time to think of what might happen, what was actually happening in that split second and I actually did what I had thought would be the best. It worked for me and I only have two slightly bruised knees. Unfortunately my co-passenger who got caught in SCENARIO II above was caught absolutely unawares – we both saw the reason why the autorickshaw driver braked, but my co-passenger did what the majority of us would have done – just took a bit more time to absorb and process the information being relayed to the brain. Result: the co-passenger has one really badly bruised and bleeding leg because it was crushed by the autorickshaw.
– So does that mean that scenario planning maybe effective only for certain individuals?
– How does one classify the differences?
– If scenario planning itself differentiates between the people it might be taught to, will the effectiveness go down further for “Innovation Scenario Planning” – since the subject becomes more specialized.
P.S. – this is what an autorickshaw looks like – Autorickshaw – will give you a better visual idea of what the scenarios might look like.